UK House Price Predictions 2009

Every year, property  market professionals speculate on how the UK housing market will perform in the coming year(s). in 2007 and 2008, virtually all ´Property Market Experts´ predicted static to modest increases in UK Real Estate values......

This year, we´ve compiled a list and reviewing the prognostications of some ´Experts´, so they can´t deny it come springtime....!

 

Unfortunately, 3 of the major indices won´t be making predictions this year. The Halifax, Nationwide and Council of Mortgage Lenders have decided they can´t make predictions for 2009. Which possibly tells us more about the market than if they had!

There have been suggestions that some media are ´talking down´ the UK market, these institutions are sensitive to public opinion, so have elected NOT to put their reputations at risk by joining all the others in talking down property prices. It´s also possible they believe the markets could tank so much, they could be accused of aiding the fall? Imagine if the Halifax admitted prices will fall 20% this year? Would you be investing in UK property or any subsiduary markets?

However, in late July, Nationwide did eventually muster the courage to offer a loose prediction and suggested UK house prices might actually finish the year slightly higher than the end of 2008.....

Here´s some of the other predictions:

Centre for Economic Business Research warns house prices could fall Peak-to-trough 40% with as much as 25% in 2009, with prices continuing depressed until 2013. Although they say this will happen ONLY IF the Banks continue to withold mortgage lending.

Roger Bootle at Capital Economics (Who correctly predicted the current crash) forecasts a 35% peak-to-trough fall through 2010.

London School of Economics´ John Van Reenan forecasts a 20% fall in 2009.

Jones Lang LaSalle Predict 13-15% fall in 09 with smaller fall in 2010. This contradicts last years forcast of up to 9% increase to 2013.

Lloyds TSB estimate just 5% fall for 2008.

Market Oracle forecast 36% fall between 2007 -2011.

Cluttons down 9.0% for 2009 and 1.5% through 2010.

Global Insight suggest falls of 15% for 2009.

Jonathon Davis at Housepricecrash.co.uk suggests a peak to trough fall of 40-50% between 2007 and 2011.

Jeremy Grantham of Global Invetment Consultants GMO agrees, suggesting 50% falls from peak (2007).

The National Housing Federation (I know, who? It´s a Quango Federation of Quangos!)hin August 2009, they have boldly predicted UK house prices will continue to fall into 2011, before recovering into 2014.

 

 

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