Here´s a look at how the UK Property Market is performing according to various Property Index commentators:

Halifax - Britains largest Mortgage lender - takes it´s figures from Mortgage approvals across it´s network. Tends to lag the edge of the market by up to 3 months, and subject to monthly fluctuations. Quarterly and annual figures are better.

Monthly: Down 2.4%  Quarterly: Down 6.3% Annual: Down 3.8%  (Sharpest Annual Drop in 15 Years! )

In April, Halifax revised their original forecast of static growth for the UK housing market in 2008, to ´modest delcine´ in property values.  (Oyster Comment: Having already admitted they were wrong about house prices just 3 months into the year, Halifax are hedging their forecast with non-specific numbers like ´modest´..... Does that mean they simply don´t know? )

Nationwide - Takes figures from Mortgage completions through mortgage lending - Similarly subject to fluctuations and lags the edge of the market by 2-4 months.

Monthly: Down 0.9%   Quarterly: Down **%  Annual (Year on Year) Down 6.3%. 2 Year figure: Up 4%   3 Year: Up 9%

In July Nationwide says House Price decline slowed from May when prices fell 2.5%, the largest monthly percentage since their records began. The annualised rate for the 6 months to June showed a drop of 11.4% and the  Quarter Annualised rate at 16.1%!!!! (According to the Economics Editor at the Guardian/Observer) If this continues, we could be looking at price falls similar to that in the USA (See USA News )  Mortgage lending 40% down in the past year.

In February, spokesperson John Wriglesworth stated ´There´s more chance of finding Elvis on the moon, than a house price crash over the next 5 years´..... (John, We´ll remind you of this quote in a few years.)

Land Registry - Takes actual SOLD prices from every property sale in the UK. Unfortunately the data is raw and is subject to wild fluctuations. It is unable to take into account refurbishment or upgrade values, and relies on a volume of sales to work. Because it takes SOLD values from registered property (Up to 3 Months after Completion) the data is usually 6-9 months behind the edge of the market.

April 08 - Monthly: Down 0.2% Annual: Up 2.7%

Tranactions: Down 30%

Rightmove - Britains Largest property portal - Takes it´s figures from Asking prices of the stock of property on the website. Subject to inaccuracies when the market changes, but a good forward indicator of where house prices are going.

Average asking price dropped 1.2 % to £239,564 in June, as annual price growth slows to virtually zero.

London asking prices lowered 1.4%.

Annual price change: Up 0.1%.

(Oyster comment: Annual change has just returned to zero, but previous rises were almost solely down to a regional increase in the South East. 6 out of the 9 other regions show Year on Year falls.)

Hometrack - Independent Market Survey - Takes figures from ´opinions´ of Estate Agents across the country. Because the figures rely on anecdotal evidence it is subject to fluctuations, It can be the best and worst indicator of the market, depending on the honesty of Estate Agents (Paragons of truth and virtue!). Potentially the best future indicator of any of the indices.

Monthly: Down 1.0%  Annual: Down 3.2%

Notes this is the 9th month in a row for declining property values with time to sell increased to over 10 weeks. 83% of postcodes report prices falling in June.

Hometrack originally forecast a 1% rise in prices for 2008. (Opps!)

Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors - Reports on the ´house price balance´, takes it´s figures from Surveys carried out by it´s members and records the confidence in the markets. Not completely accurate, but offers an up-to-date ´opinion´ of professional valuers.

Reporting 9th consecutive month of falls, a record 95.1% of Surveyors seeing house prices drop. New buyers were reported down by 68% of surveyors.

RICS forecast House Prices in 2008 will fall around 5% this year, a more modest decline than some forecasts. It says the market will escape the slump of the early 1990s because of a lower number of distressed sellers compared with 15 years ago, when homeowners were struggling with soaring interest rates. The Institute also predict house sale transactions down by 40%.

(Oyster Comment: very conservative numbers, particularly the number of Transactions)

Knight Frank (London Central Agency) report house prices dropped 1.5% in May, with tranactions down 50% year-on-tear. However, the ´Super-Prime´ (£10mil+) end of the market shows no change!

Telegraph/Lombard Street Research - runs a barometer of affordability index, which offers a guide to how over/under-priced UK property values are. Currently the Barometer is showing 83.8, which means little, until spokeperson Diana Choyleva explains it shows UK property is at its least affordable since 1991.

Council of Mortgage Lenders - CML focuses on Mortgages and these figures are important to UK property values and can predict future trends. Althought he accuracy of the data in yet to confirmed.

CML has revised it´s 2008 prediction from 1% increase on Property values to a 7% fall, along with 33% increase in property Repossessions to 30,000, and forecasting a further 50% increase on that figure to 45,000.  Meaning a fivefold increase in 4 years. In 2004, 0.07% of mortgages went in to repossession, 2008 forecast will increase to 0.38%.

CML predicted slight house price growth for 2008, without putting any numbers on it, whilst expecting a 15% decline in the number of properties sold and small drop in overall mortgage lending. (Oyster Comment: This report was published in Oct 07 and we imagine the CML would want to revise some of these numbers?)

UPDATE May 08. CML now predict a decline in transactions of 35%.

Acadametrics/Financial Times - Based on the Land Registry Data, the prices of actual properties SOLD. However, a complicated form of ´Deviation´ correction is required, or Confidence Limit as they call it. Land Registry data is always 6 months behind the market, therefore the information should prove historically accurate, but hardly up to date. For issues with using LR data see Land Registry Index.

Figures for March show 0% change in monthly price and annual change Up 5.4%.

These are just a few of the sources available to us to see how Property Values are moving in the UK

House Prices Still Rising in Scotland

MAY 08 - The Regristers of Scotland report house prices increased 7.4% (Year on year) compared to the first Quarter of 2007. However, transactions were down almost 10%.

(Oyster Comment: Whilst we don´t exactly follow property prices North of the Border, so we have little knowledge about the validity of the figures, we see these figures as an anomally, not a trend.)

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